By Judith Lin Sullivan

住房負擔能力 「法拍屋」 創新高

Written By: judith - Jun• 23•11

美國經濟成長的指標和房市興榮的關係漸漸脫節

即房市跟不上經濟復甦的腳步

風雨雨的虎年結束了,在此先預祝讀者,能在兔年掌握到美國房地產市場難見的契機。

 

未來的房市是否會有轉機﹖鑒往知來,可總結出3點:1﹑房價低廉,使國民負擔住房的能力創歷史新高﹐但同時被銀行法拍(釋)的房屋數量也創歷史新高;2﹑左右房市興衰的是:就業人口﹑銀行放寬貸款﹑低貸款利率﹑消費者信心這4項要素;3﹑分析美國房市有區域性的差異存在,已無法一概而論。

 

住房負擔能力

 

根據「法拍」案件紀錄公司Realty Trac 的預測,2011年全美的「法拍屋」(釋)數量將達120萬件, 比2010年的1百萬件還高;「國民負擔住房的能力」則是按貸款利率﹑房價﹑個人收入而定,以下是「聯邦房屋貸款局」(Federal Finance Housing Board)所提供的2010年 9月 30日的資 料,曲線代表房價與個人可支配收入的比率。

 

然而改善房市﹐不光是看國民負擔住房的能力還要有增長的「就業人口」﹑銀行放寬貸款﹑低貸款利率﹑消費者信心等的加持;拉斯維加斯2010年12月的失業率達14.9%,遠高於全美平均9.4%失業率,好消息是:根據歷史經驗,當失業率到達高峰時,房價也就止跌了,所以還是一句老話:拉斯維加斯的中低價位的房價現在是谷底點隨時可以進場買但是離房價全面翻升則為時尚早。

原文刊登在世界日報賭城版—- 1-29-2011

 

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2 Comments

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